【主题】International Comovement in the Global Production Network


【主持人】韩松 中国人民大学经济学院教授



霍震,耶鲁大学经济系助理教授,明尼苏达大学经济学博士(2015),中国人民大学2005级经数实验班毕业生。研究领域为宏观经济学和国际金融,研究成果发表在American Economic Review、Review of Economic Dynamics、American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics等一流经济学杂志。

【摘要】This paper provides a quantitative account of the role of production networks in international GDP comovement. We propose an accounting framework to decompose comovement into the components due to correlated shocks, and to the transmission of shocks across countries through the production network. We apply this decomposition in a multi-country multi-sector DSGE model, implemented on data for 30 countries and up to 28 years. We provide an analytical solution to the global influence matrix that characterizes every country`s general equilibrium GDP elasticities with respect to various shocks anywhere in the world. We then infer supply shocks at the country-sector level based on the observed value-added growth rates and the global influence matrix. We find that the recovered shocks are positively correlated, and this shock correlation accounts for two thirds of the observed GDP comovement in our preferred calibration. International transmission through trade is responsible for the remaining one third.


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